Projecting the matchups, tactics and X factors that will matter most in conference finals (2024)

The NHL's conference finals have arrived, and if you asked around in September, the four teams remaining were some of the most likely answers to the question, "Who will win the Stanley Cup?"

We didn't get here the way many would have imagined, though. In the East, there can be no debate that the Florida Panthers and New York Rangers are the best teams, and were the best teams over the course of the season.

The West, however, was a little more surprising. The Dallas Stars battled the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets all season for the No. 1 spot in the West, with all three teams having spells at the top. The Edmonton Oilers had times during the season when they were wholly unconvincing as playoff threats, including a dismal start that saw them nine points out of a playoff spot in November, leading to the dismissal of coach Jay Woodcroft.

In our series previews, we look at specific areas: key points of difference in the series, the X factor, which team my model favors and the reasons why, along with a projection on the series result.

The model is a neural network that accounts for player strength, offensive, defensive and special teams performance, goaltending, matchup ratings and rest. As the model ingests data, it improves, with the heaviest weights on recent play. The model allows for players to be added and removed, with their impact on the game results measured.

C1 DallasStars
vs.

P2 EdmontonOilers

The Stars dispatched the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights in seven games and followed that by soundly defeating the consensus second-best team in the West in the Colorado Avalanche. Dallas' path has undoubtedly been the most difficult this postseason, and they have passed every test with flying colors.

The idea of any team beating Dallas in six games seems absurd, and combined with Peter DeBoer's perfect record in Game 7s, this is a tall task ahead for Edmonton. Furthermore, the idea of the Oilers beating the Stars with significant questions around depth and goaltending seems extraordinary. But, that's why the games are played. Because anything can happen, especially in hockey.

The feeling within hockey circles matches the overwhelming sentiment on social media: Whichever team won Game 7 in Vancouver was likely to be cannon fodder for the Stars. However, Edmonton's defensive performance in the final two games of the series was outstanding.

For six minutes in the pivotal game, Vancouver dictated play and made things interesting. For the other 54 minutes, the Oilers took away passing and shooting lanes, forechecked with significant success and prevented the Canucks from creating meaningful scoring chances. All of that in front of a goaltender whose play in the series nearly cost them.

X factor

This is not exactly a secret. The X factor is whether the Stars can shut down the Oilers' foursome of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard.

Those are four of five members of the Oilers' power-play unit that has scored at will for most of the playoffs. A big part of shutting down those four, and specifically McDavid and Draisaitl, rests with Miro Heiskanen, Chris Tanev and Roope Hintz.

Roope Hintz's status is in question to start the series, and without him, Dallas could be in trouble. Wyatt Johnston has been fantastic in these playoffs, but expecting a 21-year-old to shut down two of the best players of the generation is probably a little much. Not only does Hintz need to play, and he likely will for most of the series, he needs to be effective. He drives a line with Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski who weren't as effective in his absence. The Stars control play when Hintz is on the ice, and given the depth advantage they have in the series, Hintz is a huge ingredient to Dallas' success.

Edmonton's goaltending issue

Prior to being pulled in favor of Calvin Pickard, Stuart Skinner was single-handedly going to cause the demise of the Oilers this postseason with a save percentage that was on par with the era before goaltenders wore masks and could fall on the ice to make saves.

After returning to the net in Game 6 with the Oilers on the verge of elimination, Skinner found his groove. While he didn't carry the Oilers, he made key saves when called upon. That isn't going to cut it this round as the Stars are the deeper team, capable of generating offense throughout the lineup and keeping opponents in check.

Dallas' superstar suppression system

After the Avalanche went through the Winnipeg Jets like a hot knife through butter in Round 1, Colorado's offensive playmakers were unable to create and finish with the same success against Dallas. They were not able to win the net front and create off the rush as easily.

Most notably, Dallas was able to hold Nathan Mackinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar to a combined 16 points in the six-game series. For context, those three accounted for 27 points in five games against Winnipeg. That is a production drop of 50.7% on a per-game basis from round to round, and Dallas deserves significant credit for its ability to keep Colorado's best players in check -- something that will come in handy here.

The Heiskanen-Tanev decision

A big part of shutting down the Oilers' stars rests on the shoulders of Miro Heiskanen and Chris Tanev.

Heiskanen, a Conn Smythe candidate, has been elite on both sides of the puck this season and is a good bet to take the McDavid matchup if Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch splits up Connor and Leon. Heiskanen is better suited to the Connor assignment, given his ability to stay with players who can switch gears and use edges in the way McDavid can. That leaves the Draisaitl matchup to Tanev, who is better suited to shutting down Draisaitl's style of play.

If McDavid and Draisaitl play together, Tanev had immense success shutting down Mackinnon's line in the second round and is a good bet to get the call there. That would free up Heiskanen to take advantage of easier matchups and drive offense from the blue line for the Stars.

Breaking down the forwards

Dallas' depth is a major reason many believe it's the favorite in this matchup. While they don't have the same offensive firepower on their top lines, their third line of Mason Marchment, Matt duch*ene and Tyler Seguin have the potential to be a key difference-maker against what should be easier matchups.

If Knoblauch loads up one line, that leaves Wyatt Johnston to feast on the likes of Evander Kane, Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod. Allowing Johnston and duch*ene to play in situations where they can dominate the run of play and create scoring chances could go a long way to a series win.

Neither team's fourth line is anything to write home about, but Dallas' fourth line is better defensively and shouldn't lose minutes.

Defensive depth also an edge for Dallas

Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm have been spectacular, with Bouchard firmly in the conversation for the Conn Smythe Trophy. They've dominated at even strength, Bouchard has been electric on the power play, and they consistently tilt the ice in favor of the Oilers.

After that, things fall off a cliff. The struggles of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci (his Game 7 goal excepted) have left something to be desired. When split up, Nurse and Vincent Desharnais had respectable results, albeit against competition that didn't include Johnston, Seguin, duch*ene and Logan Stankoven. Edmonton's defense is facing a tall task in keeping the Stars' scoring depth at bay and will need at least one more defenseman to have a great series if it's to keep Dallas from putting Skinner under constant siege.

On the other side, Dallas might have the best blue line outside of Vegas in the NHL. From top to bottom, it is a group that consistently makes a difference for the Stars. Heiskanen and Tanev anchor two pairings that drive play and nullify offensive threats. The luxury of having one of those two on the ice for 45-plus minutes per night is a major factor in Dallas' success.

Thomas Harley, Ryan Suter and Esa Lindell have been excellent defensively, playing mistake-free hockey on a near-nightly basis. Edmonton's top six is their toughest task yet this postseason, but if any group of defensem*n can turn off the tap, it is probably Dallas.

The special teams story

Special teams will play more of a factor in these series than previous ones for both teams. The Stars' penalty kill has really struggled, killing off fewer than 70% of their penalties this postseason. That's a problem when the Oilers powerplay is clicking at 37.5% (!) in the playoffs. No, that is not a typo.

Both power plays have been firing on all cylinders, and that might not change. Edmonton's power play struggled for two games against Vancouver, video of which is likely to be studied by Dallas. The problem is that there are so many ways the Oilers pick apart coverage. Bouchard's shot is a major asset, Draisaitl has mastered the sharp-angle shot, Hyman is a net-front menace, and if the Stars can handle all of that, Connor McDavid is out there doing Connor McDavid things. Every team is hard-pressed to stop Edmonton's power play, and Jake Oettinger will need to be the Stars' best penalty killer if they are to slow down one of the best units in league history.

The Oilers' penalty kill success was on full display against Vancouver in Game 7. They killed a four-minute double minor without allowing a scoring chance or a shot on goal, while generating a breakaway of their own. It completely shifted momentum in their favor, and they never looked back.

Operating at 91.4% efficiency in the playoffs, the Oilers' kill is due for some regression. However, watching their penalty kill in action, they are aggressive when pucks are bobbled, track and force plays on the breakout, and get pucks out without delay when they have opportunities. It is unlikely they will have the same success against Dallas as they did against Vancouver, but their scheme is a good one and will be a key ingredient to success in the series.

Series prediction

To have some fun, I ran the model with Stuart Skinner's numbers from the regular season and the playoffs. There is no telling which version of Skinner will show up, so I wanted to see both scenarios. If the Skinner from the regular season (he of a .905 save percentage) shows up, the Oilers have a 48% chance to win the series, with the most likely outcome being Dallas winning in seven games. If the version with a .881 save percentage from the playoffs shows up, that winning percentage drops to 41%, with the most likely outcome as Dallas in five games.

When all is accounted for, the Dallas Stars have a 56% chance to win the series, with near even chances of winning in six and seven games. Over the past few seasons, Skinner has been a good goaltender. But until he proves he can win big games and not allow laughers in May (and June), he remains the biggest question mark for Edmonton.

M1 New YorkRangers
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A1 FloridaPanthers

The Rangers and Panthers start their series Wednesday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+) in what should be a classic. Two teams with goaltenders capable of stealing games, superstar scoring talents and quality depth. Florida has two of the best defensive forwards in hockey in Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. They will be tasked with shutting down the high-powered Rangers offense. Both teams have a standout on the blue line with Adam Fox in New York and Gustav Forsling in Florida.

X factor

It's the proverbial "nonsense," and the special-teams play that comes as a result.

Florida has a well-documented list of questionable plays, borderline hits and a knack for getting under an opponent's skin. Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, Nick Cousins and Ryan Lomberg lead the shenanigans brigade.

The Rangers have Jacob Trouba, Chris Kreider and a new kid on the block, Matt Rempe, who has made a significant enough impact that rival teams are adding players to the lineup to ensure he does not go unchecked.

This has the potential to be a series that is played in the alley, and the winner will be the team that keeps its cool and makes the other team pay on the power play. This won't come as a surprise, but the model does not account for shenanigans and a team's ability to get away with them. That rests in the hands of the officials. It is rare that the best teams over the course of a season remain standing in the conference finals, but that's the case here in the East. This series will be won or lost on which team takes advantage of the opportunities earned by staying out of the box.

The special teams edge

The Rangers' special teams have been nothing short of outstanding in the playoffs. When power-play and penalty-kill proficiency are combined, the good teams are above 105%. The Rangers are at 121% heading into the conference finals, while the Panthers are a respectable 108%. The Rangers are generating scoring chances, and their superstars are capitalizing on their opportunities.

New York stopped Carolina's power play in its tracks during the second round. Florida has better goal scorers and is generating more than Carolina did, which will make the Rangers' task more difficult. The Rangers' penalty kill is humming along at nearly 90%, and while that could regress to the mean, they have consistently taken away passing lanes, and they understand when to pressure and when to pass off players. If the Panthers are going to have success, they'll need to execute on quick plays, keep players moving in the zone and try to force the Rangers out of the passing lanes. If they can do that, they will still have to get the puck by Igor Shesterkin, who is playing at a Conn Smythe level.

Statistical point of difference: depth

Simply put, it's how the Rangers create offense versus how Florida defends. Florida's elite forwards finish scoring chances at a lower rate than the Rangers do, but they are better defensively. They keep the opponent's best players in check while producing offense at a top-line level. The Rangers lack the offensive firepower in the bottom six and on the blue line to attack in waves the way Florida can.

Fox is the only offensive driver on the back end for New York, while Florida has Forsling and Brandon Montour driving separate pairs. Both teams have excellent depth, but Florida's offensive depth gives them the edge along with elite two-way players in Barkov and Reinhart. Florida should feel comfortable when the Barkov and Mika Zibanejad lines are on the ice, allowing its depth to win out over the course of the series.

How Florida's tactics can slow New York

The Panthers are good at defending rush play, an area the Rangers have feasted on through the first two rounds. The Rangers have enjoyed success getting the puck to the high-danger areas and finishing their opportunities. However, they have not done that with sustainable volume, and the Panthers have the defensive chops to make it more difficult to penetrate the high-danger areas of the ice.

If the Rangers can continue their strong finishing rate, this will undoubtedly be a tight series. There is no guarantee of that, nor is there a guarantee that they will have as many chances as created against Washington or Carolina.

The eye test

The Rangers have a demonstrated ability to win one-goal games. Their goal differential was nothing to write home about, but they lived off the "one more goal than the other guys" mentality all season, and it resulted in a Presidents' Trophy.

While it is more eye-opening -- and less stressful on fans -- to beat up on teams and post a goal differential above 60, the Rangers (plus-53) did it the hard way. The playoffs are about who can win one-goal games, and no one is better at it than the Rangers, who finished 23-4-4 in those contests this season.

If the clichés like "finding ways to win the tight ones" and "making one fewer mistake than the other team" are a coach's dream, then the Rangers are a dream team. That's Rangers hockey, complete with heart palpitations and off-the-charts stress levels. It is a dangerous way to live, and it can bite you at the worst moments, but the Rangers will be more comfortable in those situations.

What about Bob?

Almost none of the above matters if Sergei Bobrovsky does not make the timely saves he has made this postseason. He hasn't played at the level he did during last year's run to the Cup Final, but he has been very reliable.

The Rangers are ranked near the bottom in 5-on-5 high-danger chances generated per 60 minutes in the playoffs and middle of the pack in all scoring chances. The Panthers are not giving up a high volume of scoring chances, and Bobrovsky has stopped more than 2.6 goals above expected, according to Moneypuck. He will need to sustain -- and perhaps improve upon -- his .902 save percentage over the past month if he is to outperform Shesterkin in the series.

If he can do that, the Panthers are well positioned to win. If the clock strikes midnight in similar fashion to the 2023 Cup Final, it tips the scales in favor of the Rangers.

Series prediction

The model gives the Panthers a 55% edge, with a predicted seven-game series on the horizon. The most likely outcomes for each team are Panthers in six and Rangers in seven. A sweep or five-game series would be a major surprise barring a significant injury to either team.